English Summary #3

The liberal world order of the late 1990s died on February 24th, 2020. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, many pundits believed that a new era of peace had come to the modern world. While there have been many asymmetric conflicts in the last two decades, the world, as a whole, was getting more peaceful. However, this illusion has been more or less shattered since the beginning of the War in Ukraine. While the United States and its allies have invaded a multitude of nations since World War 2, the Russo-Ukrainian War stands as the first time a non NATO-aligned power has directly invaded a neighboring country in decades. This means that the war is not just a conflict against Ukraine but also a direct challenge to the power of the West. Due to this, the belief in the power of cooperation between opposing sides has been sidelined in favor of a belief in military and economic dominance. Understanding the political and military implications of this turning point in history is vital to evaluating the future geopolitics. It is on this subject that Prof. Dr. Carlo Masala spoke on the 18th of April, 2023.

Before speaking on the world as a whole, it is important to explore how impactful the events of the War in Ukraine have been for Germany specifically. Before the war, Germany had pursued a policy of “Ostpolitik” with Russia, which entailed balancing their interests between east and west, rather than siding entirely with one pole. This meant that Germany had a neutral foreign policy towards Russia, which made German leadership comfortable with having a limited military budget and relying heavily on Russia for energy imports. While this policy worked for some time, it has since proven to be naive in the long term. Overall, the greatest change for Germany has been its reevaluation of its foreign policy. Following the invasion of Ukraine, the German government increased the Bundeswehr budget by 100 billion Euro, while also distancing itself from Russia diplomatically.

The War in Ukraine has also had significant impacts on the world at large. One of the factors of the conflict which is often overlooked is the enormous importance of global logistics. Much of Russia’s difficulty in the war can be attributed to their poor command of logistics. While Russia has made progress, it is often undone by a counterattack and is always slow, primarily because of Russia’s inability to quickly replace losses of equipment. On the other side of things, much of Ukraine’s ability to stall Russia has come as a result of the consistent support from NATO. Overall, global logistics chains and trade routes have been extremely stressed in the wake of the conflict.

Beyond logistics or military spending, the invasion has also changed the outlook many nations have on geopolitics. Since February 24th, 2020, the option of using military might over diplomatic means has become much more viable than before. Nations all over the world, not just Germany, have been rearming their militaries and refocusing their foreign policy on defense rather than de-escalation. European NATO members, many of whom have been negligent in their obligations to spend 2% of their GDP on defense spending, have suddenly rushed to fulfill their commitment. In the eyes of many, the conflict has reaffirmed the value of traditional military strength, and this is especially visible in Germany’s own rearmament. Overall, the war has proven to be a significant turning point in Germany’s understanding of its military, alliances, and its place in global politics.

So far, Masala said, there has been no turning point in defence and security policy. This applies - although not exclusively - to Germany, whose chancellor never spoke directly of a turning point for German security and defence policy in his famous speech. After an initial period of speed, the country is now moving forward again without a functioning strategy. Rather, the turning point is happening around us.